We have seen things which we didn’t dream
of. In 2014, a party stormed into the power to lead world’s largest democracy
with a landslide victory, which is certainly a strange thing to the generation of
people who were grown up with the coalitions. We may waive this off as a onetime
luck due to the anti-incumbent wave that swept across the country after a
decade long scandals. But, one might think otherwise after witnessing similar
kind of results in recent Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India, election.
So, the question is, has BJP become so invincible that all the parties must come together despite of their ideological differences?
Before arriving at any conclusions, let us delve into facts. There have been many Legislative Assembly elections in India along and after BJP’s landslide victory in 2014, 19 states to be precise. We can see clear trends if we observe those results. In 2014, along with the Lok Sabha elections, Legislative Assembly elections for 8 eights sates were carried out. BJP, either alone or with coalition, could able to form governments in 6 of them, which is spectacular. It’s not the win, it’s the vote share that tells the major story. BJP could able to increase the vote share substantially in all those states. People were in desperate need for a change, and BJP seemed to be the most trustworthy option amongst the all.
The story was not quite rosy for BJP in 2015. In 2015 there was Legislative Assembly elections for two states, Delhi and Bihar. BJP failed miserably in both. In Delhi, AAP swept the rug under BJP’s feet by winning, never seen before, 67/70 seats. That was a defeat by a HUGE margin. Story remains same in Bihar, though it could able to increase the vote percentage it lost to Mahagatbandhan by a huge margin. BJP came to power amidst sky high expectations to see ‘Ächhe Din’ after 5 years of debacles. Few headline grabbing promises like, ‘getting black money back to India within 100 days’ had actually backfired as there weren’t any actions towards that. Despite there was strong support to NDA/BJP, dissent was in rise amongst the people.
There were elections for four states in 2016 (Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), BJP could able to form the Government in Assam alone. We can take Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal out of the equation, as BJP traditionally has very limited presence in those states. When it comes to 2017, BJP had a dream run so far, by winning in the largest state and by able to form the government in 4 states. Surprisingly, even after the humiliating defeats in Delhi and Bihar, BJP could able to increase the vote share in all those states except Punjab and Goa. The tides have turned in favor of BJP, but, the question remains, what made the tides to turn?
It seems BJP came out of hangover after the shock of Delhi and Bihar and they started working towards their promises. We can see that from the various schemes they have launched in 2015, PMJBY, PMSBY, APY, Digital India, Mudra Bank, One Rank One Pension etc. One might think they were in process before the announcement, but, there was no mention of any those schemes in budget 2015-16. It seems they have realized that the actions matter not the empty promises.
Despite of severe criticism from the opposing parties against the major decisions made by government in 2016 like Surgical strike, Demonitization etcetera, BJP has increased its popularity amongst the masses. As people say, ‘too much of anything is bad’. Too much of mudsling against BJP, no matter how true it is, by the politicians who call themselves as reincarnation of Buddha, and by those people who call themselves as honest journalists, has marginalized them instead of BJP. Coalitions irrespective of ideological differences, trying to milk out every possible scenario no matter how stupid that is, and lack of strong contender in the opposition camp have worked in favor of BJP. For the first time in the history of Bharatiya Janata Party, it has national appeal.
It is impossible in a country like India to
pin point the reason for either winning or losing. India is huge and
diversified, no single factor effects all the regions in the same way unless it
is cricket. To conclude, it is a self-made disaster for Indian National
Congress, they have gifted India to BJP. And BJP, no, it is not invincible, not
even close to it. Delhi, Punjab and Bihar elections have shown that. Currently,
all India needs is strong villain, if we consider BJP as hero or otherwise, to
keep BJP in check. If things continue to unfold like it did for the last two years
and opposition camp continues to do the same mistakes as they did before, BJP may
come close to invincible.
As long as BJP is less stupid than its opposing parties it continues to flourish.
In : Political Issues
Tags: bjp inc bharatiya janata party indian national congress uttar pradesh elections lok sabha legislative assembly 2014 2017 landslide india future politics economy